After successfully coaching small business owners just like you for the past 21 years I have learned that there are common denominators across the board. The majority of business owners feel that they need more new business, their expenses are too high; and, they pay too much in taxes. If this sounds like you then read on. If it does not sound like you then give yourself a high five because you are at the top of your game.
Most experts would agree that the following outlines the stages of business cycle, and I don’t disagree.
Stages of the Business Cycle
- Expansion
The first stage in the business cycle is expansion. In this stage, there is an increase in positive economic indicators such as employment, income, output, wages, profits, demand, and supply of goods and services. Debtors are generally paying their debts on time, the velocity of the money supply is high, and investment is high. This process continues as long as economic conditions are favorable for expansion.
- Peak
The economy then reaches a saturation point, or peak, which is the second stage of the business cycle. The maximum limit of growth is attained. The economic indicators do not grow further and are at their highest. Prices are at their peak. This stage marks the reversal point in the trend of economic growth. Consumers tend to restructure their budgets at this point.
- Recession
The recession is the stage that follows the peak phase. The demand for goods and services starts declining rapidly and steadily in this phase. Producers do not notice the decrease in demand instantly and go on producing, which creates a situation of excess supply in the market. Prices tend to fall. All positive economic indicators such as income, output, wages, etc., consequently start to fall.
- Depression
There is a commensurate rise in unemployment. The growth in the economy continues to decline, and as these fall below the steady growth line, the stage is called a depression.
- Trough
In the depression stage, the economy’s growth rate becomes negative. There is further decline until the prices of factors, as well as the demand and supply of goods and services, contract to reach their lowest point. The economy eventually reaches the trough. It is the negative saturation point for an economy. There is extensive depletion of national income and expenditure.
- Recovery
After the trough, the economy moves to the stage of recovery. In this phase, there is a turnaround in the economy, and it begins to recover from the negative growth rate. Demand starts to pick up due to low prices and, consequently, supply begins to increase. The population develops a positive attitude towards investment and employment and production starts increasing.
Employment begins to rise and, due to accumulated cash balances with the bankers, lending also shows positive signals. In this phase, depreciated capital is replaced, leading to new investments in the production process. Recovery continues until the economy returns to steady growth levels.
This completes one full business cycle of boom and contraction. The extreme points are the peak and the trough.
My analysis is in agreement with the above list with a few differences. As you will see in a moment those differences will be the difference with a business that is always struggling or one that runs with effortless ease.